The International Energy Agency raised its forecast for global oil demand this year as developing countries need more crude to fuel their economies.

The IEA increased its estimate for world demand in 2010 by 170,000 barrels a day to 86.5 million barrels a day. That would mean a gain of 1.6 million barrels a day, or 1.8 percent, from 2009 levels, it said. Consumption growth is driven entirely by economies outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the IEA said.

“Global oil demand now takes its cue primarily from rising emerging country incomes,” the Paris-based agency said in its monthly oil market report today. “More robust economic projections by the International Monetary Fund, notably for 2010, are partly counterbalanced by a higher price assumption and persistently weak OECD oil demand data.”

The IMF forecasts world economic growth of 3.8 percent this year, up 0.8 percentage point from its previous estimate. While the estimates for both OECD and non-OECD economies were revised up, it is emerging and developing economies that are the key driving force in the economic recovery and rebound in oil demand, the IEA said.

Oil consumption in those countries, where economic growth is forecast at 6.1 percent, is expected to average 41 million barrels a day in 2010, an increase from last year of 1.6 million barrels a day, or 4 percent, according to the IEA. That is 170,000 barrels a day more than the agency estimated last month.

China Growth

Asian economies, in particular China, will lead the increase, the IEA said. Chinese oil demand is forecast to surge 4.7 percent this year to 8.9 million barrels a day. The outlook assumes that steps by the Chinese government to curb inflationary pressures won’t curb economic growth, forecast by the IMF at 10 percent this year.

The IEA left its estimate for oil consumption in OECD countries unchanged from last month at 45.5 million barrels a day in 2010, the same level as last year, even as the IMF raised its economic growth forecast for the region.

Demand in those countries may have peaked, according to the IEA, as they shift away from heavier oil products such as heating oil and fuel oil to cleaner, more efficient energy sources such as natural gas, renewables and nuclear power. Combined with relatively cheap natural gas prices, this means the economic recovery in those countries could be “oil-less,” according to the agency.

Oil Prices

Oil averaged about $62.67 a barrel in 2009, and is at $75.68 a barrel so far this year, according to Bloomberg data. The effect of these higher prices on oil consumption partly offsets stronger economic growth, the agency said.

The stronger oil consumption outlook means there will be a greater burden on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries this year to balance global demand and supply, the IEA said. The agency raised its “call on OPEC crude” by 300,000 barrels a day this month to 29.4 million barrels a day.

Producers from outside the group will also contribute to meeting demand growth, according to the IEA. Non-OPEC supply is expected to average 51.6 million barrels a day this year, 120,000 barrels a day more than estimated last month. The revision was driven by stronger supply from the U.S., the North Sea and Mexico, according to the report.

OPEC’s compliance with record supply cuts announced in 2008 slipped to 58 percent in January, from 61 percent the previous month, the IEA said. The group’s 11 members bound by production quotas raised output by 135,000 barrels a day to 26.62 million a day last month. That means OPEC exceeded its collective target by about 1.8 million barrels a day.

Industry-held oil stockpiles in OECD countries dropped in December to 2.678 billion barrels, 0.8 percent below where they were a year before, according to the IEA. Supplies were the equivalent of 58.1 days of demand at the end of the month, down from 59.2 days at the end of November.

Preliminary data suggest stockpiles increased by 11.4 million barrels last month, the agency said.