OPEC: Oil price and demand to rise to 1 million barrel a day

The IEA forecast yesterday that the oil price, excluding inflation, would be $100 a barrel in 2020 and $115 in 2030, saying oil demand would rise by one per cent per year.

Global demand would rise from 85 million barrels per day (bpd) last year to 105 bpd in 2030, assuming that forthcoming negotiations on global warming in Copenhagen did not result in immediate big changes in energy policies, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.

The average oil price this year would be about $60 per barrel against a background of weak economic activity.

The price would then rise with economic recovery to $115 a barrel in 20 years’ time in constant dollar valuations, meaning after stripping out the effect of inflation, the IEA said.

Meanwhile, the secretary-general of OPEC, Abdullah Al Badri, said yesterday that global oil demand would grow 700,000 bpd next year.

China and India will lead global economic growth next year, with the producer group forecasting world GDP growth at 2.7 per cent next year, up from an earlier forecast of 2.3 per cent in July, he said in a speech delivered on his behalf .

OPEC’s director of energy research Hasan Qabazard said separately yesterday the group also sees signs of oil demand in the US.

“There are signs that overall global demand contraction will ease in the fourth-quarter,” Al Badri said. “The consensus is that oil demand growth will return after two full years of contraction.”

Oil demand growth will gradually rise to 1.2 million bpd by 2013, he said.

“Most of this demand growth will again be in non-OECD countries, with transportation, industrial and petrochemicals leading the way,” Al Badri added.