Disputes over natural gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

While much attention has been paid to Arab uprisings in North Africa and the Middle East, disputes in the neighbouring region of the eastern Mediterranean Sea over the development of vast offshore natural gas fields are also worthy of our attention.

Since 2009, marine exploration companies have found some of the world’s largest, untapped, offshore natural gas reserves of the decade in the eastern Mediterranean. These discoveries have brought into stark relief the question of conflicting maritime boundaries involving Turkey, the Republic of Cyprus (ROC) and Israel. Even more worrisome is the fact that diplomatic and political tensions over these boundaries could, conceivably, lead to outright military intervention. This month’s In Focus article provides a brief overview of the regional disputes over energy in the eastern Mediterranean Sea and the developing geopolitical and security implications.

Rising Conflicts

Although tensions between Cyprus and Turkey have simmered for decades, their relations became considerably more hostile after Turkey intervened militarily in Cyprus in the mid-1970s following a Greek-inspired coup d’état. The Turkish invasion led to the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Cypriots, and to the eventual establishment of a separate Turkish Cypriot entity on the northern portion of the island. Currently, the island is partitioned between an internationally recognized Greek Cypriot southwest, represented by the Republic of Cyprus (ROC), and a Turkish Cypriot northeast, represented by the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), which is only recognized by Ankara.

While the resulting political and geographical situation has been a matter of ongoing tensions, further issues arose after the ROC announced that Noble Energy, a US-based energy firm, was going to begin gas exploratory drilling activities off the island’s southern coast in September 2011. Drilling was scheduled to take place at the Aphrodite natural gas field, known simply as Block-12, which is in the exploratory drilling Block-12 region located approximately 103 nautical miles (191km) offshore. The ROC says that the field, which is believed to contain some three to nine trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas, is located in the state’s legally claimed maritime exclusive economic zone (EEZ). This zone gives a state the right to conduct economic activities up to 200 nautical miles (370 km) from its coastline under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

These drilling activities have been fiercely opposed by Turkey; the only United Nations (UN) member state that does not recognize the ROC as a sovereign political entity, let alone its claimed EEZs. Ankara argues that the ROC does not have the legal right to exploit the region’s seabed resources unilaterally until the sovereignty issues related to the ethnically divided island are resolved. The ROC, however, argues that given that their demarcated borders with Egypt, Lebanon and Israel have been supported by the United States, the European Union and the United Nations, the Cypriot government has the right to develop its offshore gas fields. Thus, on September 19, 2011, drilling began.

Turkey Ups the Ante

Despite these Turkish cease and desist protests, Nicosia (the ROC capital) has indicated that energy exploration activities in the eastern Mediterranean Sea could lead to energy production in the near future. This notification, reinforced by expanded exploratory operations on Block-12 by the ROC, prompted Turkey and the TRNC to ratify a continental shelf delimitation agreement in September 2011. Though the ratification was primarily aimed at discouraging Nicosia from continuing its offshore exploration activities, it also gave Ankara the green light to begin its own gas exploration activities. Exactly one day after the ratification, Ankara deployed a warship-escorted seismic survey vessel, RV Koca Piri Reis, to begin gas exploration activities off the coast of Cyprus. The Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, warned that the vessel would be under constant Turkish military surveillance and would be given as much military escort, including submarines and frigates, as needed. Ankara’s assertion that it would back up its drilling activities with naval assets not only raised the spectre of a military standoff between the two states, but also threatened to worsen tensions in the Middle East; a region already severely plagued with political turmoil following the Arab uprisings.

Geopolitical Dynamics

This maritime territorial dispute has been further complicated by the involvement of Israel. There have been several massive offshore natural gas discoveries, estimated to contain over 20 tcf of recoverable natural gas reserves, made off the northern coast of Israel since 2009. These included the Leviathan, Tamar, Dalit and the Mari-B fields. The discoveries have lead Israel to pursue an energy development partnership with the ROC in an effort to achieve energy independence in an environment characterized by extreme uncertainty and instability. In 2010, Tel Aviv and Nicosia signed an accord that officially demarcated their maritime borders to facilitate and secure partnered offshore gas exploration. The accord was bitterly opposed by the Turkish government, which believed that the agreement was strategically initiated by Tel Aviv following the deadly 2010 Israeli raid on the Gaza-bound, Mavi Marmara, in which nine Turkish aid activists were killed. The incident severely curtailed Israeli-Turkish relations after Ankara severed all defence and diplomatic ties with Israel following Tel Aviv’s failure to apologize for the raid; developments that marked a substantial move by one of Israel’s former strategic allies.

The rapidly worsening relationship between these two states has raised the spectre of regional naval intervention. It appears that ever since Israel dismissed the deadly Gaza incident and pursued relations with the ROC – one of Turkey’s arch-rivals – Turkey has threatened to use military force to protect its interests. These threats have been largely interpreted as a strategy to preserve, or perhaps boost, Turkey’s regional influence; in recent years Turkey has been regarded as constituting a democratic role-model, particularly among freshly, liberated countries looking to build new governments. Turkey’s threats of military intervention have also been seen as Ankara’s attempt to thwart any efforts by Nicosia to take advantage of strained relations between Tel Aviv and Ankara in order to secure future energy supplies. Furthermore, Ankara’s attempt to display regional influence comes, strategically, amid a worsening financial crisis in Greece, Nicosia’ principal supporter. Athens’ profound weakness could leave the ROC extremely vulnerable to any Turkish provocations, since there would be little, if any, likelihood of military backing from Greece. Meanwhile, the ROC has portrayed Turkey as the lead antagonist responsible for growing tensions in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, a charge that could destroy Turkey’s long-standing bid to join the EU. In fact, in October 2011, Nicosia vowed to keep Turkey’s EU talks on hold as long as Ankara challenged the island’s rights to launch gas drilling activities. This dispute was compounded still further after Turkey announced that it would suspend all ties with the EU if the bloc allows Nicosia to assume the rotating presidency of the EU in July 2012 (unless talks for the reunification of the island are successfully concluded by then). However, analysts note, that given the current environment, reunification is highly unlikely.

Israeli Energy Pursuits

Israel’s push for energy security comes amid severe political turmoil that has plagued much of North Africa and the Middle East following the ousting of Tunisia’s President Ben Ali, and more notably, the Egyptian Revolution of 2011. The overthrow of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has resulted in a political backlash against Tel Aviv in Cairo not seen since the 1979 Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty. This weakening relationship has deeply threatened Israel’s natural gas energy supply; a reality highlighted by several militant attacks on natural gas pipelines in the Sinai Peninsula that have caused more than five temporary disruptions in delivery this year. The attacks have had a significant economic and security impact, given that 40 percent of Israel’s natural gas energy supply comes from Egypt. Moreover, Egypt’s apparent inability to secure Israeli-Egyptian gas pipelines have lead Israel to become increasingly concerned about its energy security.

While the worsening security situation among regional states in the eastern Mediterranean has understandably forced a competition for as much energy security as possible, the disputes over energy exploration rights have increased the likelihood of a regional armed standoff. This likelihood has been greatly intensified by the Arab uprisings and weakened regional relations. However, the final outcome will become more evident when energy exploration in the eastern Mediterranean Sea eventually turns into profitable energy production.