International oil companies are jockeying for advantage in the new Libya, buoyed by news that damage to the energy infrastructure appears to be slight. But they remain anxious about a lack of security and are holding off sending workers back into the country.

National Transitional Council officials report little damage to oil export terminals in eastern Libya (at Ras Lanuf and El Brega) and have appealed to employees to return to work. The two terminals handle the bulk of oil exports pumped from the Sirte basin. But the rebels have also begun to use, with help from Qatar, a terminal at Tobruk.

The NTC official in charge of oil and the economy, Ali Tarhouni, told Reuters news agency Thursday that he expects production can reach 500,000 to 600,000 barrels per day within a few weeks, and return to the prewar level of 1.6 million within a year.

Some industry analysts believe that is optimistic. Sources at Italian oil company Eni (the largest producer in Libya) forecast production at 750,000 barrels by sometime early next year. Energy consultants Wood Mackenzie estimate it will take three years for production to recover to the prewar level. But that would depend on the prompt return of foreign workers.

In a recent report, Wood Mackenzie estimated “six months will be required for NOC (Libya’s state-owned oil firm) staff, international companies and foreign workers to return and re-establish supply lines and assess and repair damaged infrastructure.”

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