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Total on track for 2 percent output growth in 2011
French major Total (TOTF.PA) is sticking to its goal of lifting its oil and gas production by two percent this year despite output-curtailing events in the Middle East and North Africa, its strategy head said on Tuesday.
Jean-Jacques Mosconi, head of strategy at Total, also told the Reuters Global Energy and Climate Summit he expected oil prices to remain at $100 a barrel in 2011 and 2012 and warned current prices were now an issue for world economic growth.
France’s biggest company by market capitalization targets a production rise of 2 percent per year on average in the 2010-2015 period, making it one of few international energy groups able to continue to increase their oil and gas output.
“Yes we are on track to confirm the 2 percent growth rate in the years to come,” Mosconi said, adding this excluded the recent acquisition of a 12-percent stake in Russian gas company Novatek (NOTK.MM) which added 110,000-120,000 barrels per day to Total’s oil and gas output portfolio.
The Novatek deal will lead to Total taking a 20 percent stake in Novatek’s Yamal LNG project, along with other partners set to be announced this summer, Mosconi said, adding he expected a final investment decision on the project in 2013.
The additional output brought by the Novatek purchase is likely to more than make up for the production Total lost in Libya, which the French group estimates at around 55,000 bpd.
“Libya is not a big deal,” Mosconi said, referring to the size of Total’s output there.
He said Total was still keen to operate in Libya but would take no political position in the violence-torn country.
This was despite speculation that France’s backing of the rebel movement marching on Tripoli could help the French group have a greater say in the country’s oil wealth.
Mosconi also said Total’s output in Yemen, another Arab country facing popular unrest, was not affected.
“Our big asset there is Yemen LNG. This is working. All the cargoes are leaving… Things have not changed in this part of the country, which is very far from Sanaa (Yemen’s capital).”
OIL PRICE AT $110 AN ISSUE
While Mosconi said there were growing issues on the oil supply side, he added there were no issues with oil reserves.
“We see more than 70 years of oil reserves,” he said, adding 60 percent of those reserves were located in the Middle East.
“Some national oil companies are not putting on the market all the production capacity they could… because they want to manage resources over time,” he said.
Oil prices were likely to rise over time because of the difficulty to access oil reserves.
Mosconi said: “$110 is becoming an issue for the world economic growth,” adding he expected prices to remain around $100 a barrel for the rest of 2011 and through 2012.
“Next year it should stay at the same level because the feeling is that Saudi Arabia will increase current production above its quota level and today it’s already close to 9 million barrels per day,” he said, adding output could still rise by roughly between 500,000-1 million barrels per day.
Mosconi said Total was still in exclusive talks with a potential buyer to sell its Lindsey refinery in UK. Total has repeatedly said over the past year that a sale was imminent.
“We are confident we will achieve this deal in the next weeks, it’s difficult to say whether it will be in the next 10 days,” he said. “On both sides everybody wants to make sure the deal is OK both from an industrial aspect and a financial aspect which is why it is a long process.”
On the nuclear front, Mosconi said the Fukushima disaster in Japan had reduced the opportunities to invest in a sector the French oil major was banking on in the coming years.
“We don’t think there will be a general move against nuclear, but we have to take into account that there will be fewer opportunities that we might have thought two years ago.”
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