OPEC’s newly announced plans to spend billions of dollars on future supplies are unlikely to unleash a flood of oil on to the market as it maintains a policy of restraint and supporting prices for years to come.

At the same time, some of the biggest oil companies are investing less than before the 2008 oil price crash even though economic recovery is forecast to drive global demand to unprecedented levels.

OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri said this week the 12-member group would spend $155 billion on projects coming on stream between 2010 and 2014, which would add 12 million barrels per day (bpd) of gross production capacity.

But much of that is likely to go into maintaining output at existing fields rather than developing new ones. Top exporter Saudi Arabia spends billions each year to hold capacity where it is, said Paul Tossetti, senior energy adviser at PFC Energy.

“When you look at the Saudis, they’ve basically finished their incremental oil capacity increases,” he said. “I don’t see much in the way of OPEC capacity increases in the next few years, aside from Iraq.”

Among the world’s three largest fully publicly traded oil companies, Royal Dutch Shell and BP Plc are raising their spending this year but not to the levels the companies were spending before the 2008 crash.

Exxon Mobil stands apart in that it increased its outlay through the downturn, although it has yet to announce investment plans for this year.

Shell said its cautious approach was based on a long-term view and sought to avoid the boom and bust of previous economic swings, when waves of new oil sent the price crashing.

“We aim to keep our investment levels relatively constant through the business cycle,” said Simon Henry, Shell’s chief financial officer, at a post-results news conference this week.

“One of the ways of losing money in this industry is to follow the cycle too much and invest more as the prices go up.”

DIFFERENT FOCUS

While the oil majors’ focus is relatively short-term, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are concerned with maximising oil revenues over the long term.

The influence of Saudi Arabia, in particular, derives from maintaining spare capacity that can be added or taken away from the market depending on the balance of supply and demand.

As he announced OPEC’s plans, Badri stressed the need for a customer base when deciding whether to increase capacity.